A Tax-Free Option and 5.45% For 5 years

Lock Interest Rates at 5.45% for 5 years

If you are a saver, the environment is in your favor. Our office has been using treasury bills (currently paying over 5%) over CDs because treasury bills can be sold at any time without penalty, and they are exempt from state income tax. If there is a negative to treasury bills, it is the maximum amount of time we can guarantee interest rates over 5% is for 1 year. Treasury Bills are issued in durations of 1 year or less. For those looking for an alternative with longer interest rate guarantees, fixed annuities can be attractive. Augustar Financial currently offers a 5-year guarantee annuity yielding 5.45%.Investors have the option of distributing up to 10% per year without penalty.

Complimentary Marketing Call for Crosby Advisory Group Clients

Four years ago, I had a marketing analysis performed on Crosby Advisory Group by Carly Snyder who has spent over 20 years developing marketing strategies for several S&P 500 companies. The results were so far beyond my expectations that I jumped at the chance to bring her onto our team full time. Now Crosby Advisory Group offers this service to our clients. If you are a business owner or are instrumental in client acquisition, service or retention we offer a complimentary call with Carly. My promise to you is you’ll walk away plenty of ideas to turbo-charge your business.

Macy Vogel Obtains Life Insurance License

Congratulations to Macy Vogel who recently obtained her Life Insurance license with the Ohio Department of Insurance. Macy is a managing partner of Crosby Advisory Group and is instrumental in our day-to-day service and operations. Life Insurance plays a key role in the financial planning process, as it is the only product that guarantees a retirement nest egg can be completed. In addition, investor's appetite for tax-free investments has increased with recent proposals for tax rate increases. Tax-free accumulation options are often limited to higher income earners or for investors that presently participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. For this reason, Indexed Universal Life Insurance policies (IULs) have grown in popularity for their ability to generate tax-free income, competitive growth and a tax-free death benefit that doesn’t have funding limits. Macy will assist in the implementation of these policies, as well as our complete portfolio of Life Insurance and annuity products.

A stock catching fire without smoke?

Phillip Morris - Zyn For The Win? Philip Morris International Reported earnings on April 23rd beating revenue expectations (8.45B expected/8.79B reported/4.03% beat) and earnings per share (1.41 expected/1.50 reported/6.46% beat). Here are some of the reasons we are interested in owning Phillip Morris for those with the appropriate risk tolerance/investment time frame. 

Commentary

Phillip Morris is trading above its 10-year average P/E Ratio and its internal return metrics have fallen over the past 5 years due to the increase in investment in acquisitions. Most notably the acquisition of Swedish Match the maker of the ZYN nicotine pouches. They are also seeing success in the other smokeless alternatives like IQOS. These smoke free alternatives have higher profit margins relative to their existing business and are growing at a rapid pace. 443 million cans of Zyn were sold in Q1 2024 up 70% from Q1 2023. Since 2019 that segment has grown 90% annually on average. Their long-term targets include expanding the smoke-free segments into more markets by 2025. Also hitting 66% of their net revenue come from smoke-free alternatives in 2030. The smoke-free alternatives segment generates 37.5% gross profit relative to 2.3% for combustibles. This segment is still being rolled out and will expand to 100 markets by 2025 (according to targets, currently available in 84 markets). The smoke free segment and the success of Zyn and IQOS are the reasons for increased growth estimates next year and 2026. Projecting 41.83B in revenue for FY 2026 and EPS of 7.50. IF these targets are hit the corresponding stock price would reach (BASED ON ESTIMATES)

• P/E 16.00 $120.00 (7.69% CAGR) +Dividend reinvestment
• P/E 17.00: $127.50 (9.88% CAGR) +Dividend reinvestment
• P/E 18.74 $140.55 (13.51% CAGR) +Dividend reinvestment
• P/E 19.00 $142.50 (14.04% CAGR) +Dividend reinvestment

Risks/Conclusions

Phillip Morris has not been a high-growth business over the past 5 years, but it has been stable in revenue and consistent with returning value to shareholders through the dividend. It's a leveraged business which adds to the inherent risk of the investment. These growth estimates are above trend driven by a new business segment that may or may not meet expectations. Phillip Morris has increased their dividend by a CAGR of 7.2% since going public in 2008. This in combination with the prospects for appreciation in the stock make it an attractive investment even if the valuation of the stock contracts to a below trend level.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes and does not represent direct individual advice. Crosby Advisory Group, LLC provides financial planning, marketing and insurance services. Crosby Advisory Group, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal.